The Goal of Independence and Unexpected Consequences

July 4 is a holiday just about everybody celebrates. Political and other differences tend to get overlooked when enjoying friends, family, and fireworks. Our nation’s independence means something to most of us.

What the US has is a reason so many people want to get into this country. And factors we don’t think of influence this, including when life gets in the way. At this time we have a lot, and I mean a lot, of people wanting to immigrate from Guatemala. (This is a business memo not a political one.)

Why? One big reason is the dramatic drop in coffee prices. Yes, a drop in coffee prices (although not at Starbucks and other shops). Guatemala grows some of the best coffee in the world and there are thousands and thousands of small coffee farms. And they’re all hurting.

It seems Brazil has invested in equipment that makes the cost of harvesting coffee beans much lower. This has caused the price of coffee beans to drop and it’s no longer sustainable to have a small, labor intensive, coffee farm.

Every action has a reaction (Newton’s Third Law) and the solution (for many), is to get out. Go where there’s more opportunity, which sounds a lot like what happened centuries ago and lead to the Declaration of Independence.

A business decision and improvement in one country led to a recession in another country’s top industry, and finally to a border crisis. I am willing to bet nobody thought of, much less predicted, anything close to this when Brazil modernized their coffee production.

It’s hard enough to forecast and predict what will happen in our day-to-day businesses. Much less when you see the ramifications of something as “simple” as modernization.

“The United States is the only country with a known birthday.” – James G. Blaine

 “Independence Day: freedom has its life in the hearts, the actions, the spirit of men and so it must be daily earned and refreshed – else like a flower cut from its life-giving roots, it will wither and die.” – Dwight D. Eisenhower

“I like to see a man proud of the place in which he lives.  I like to see a man live so that his place will be proud of him.”  – Abraham Lincoln

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