One of the most famous lines in literature is Charles Dickens opening of A Tale of Two Cities, “It was the best of times, it was the worst of times.” One could apply that line to what’s going on these days with the pandemic.
It’s the best of (business) times for grocery stores, streaming services, cleaning supplies manufacturers and distributors, etc. It’s the worst of days for those getting sick, having knee replacements or rotator cuff surgeries postponed, and owners and employees of a devastated small business. Given this is a business newsletter let’s talk about the last point.
Let’s start with two examples that represent quite a few situations I’ve discussed with people over the last couple of weeks.
A client with a distribution business was worried about making her payroll a week later, even at its current 50% of normal level. She didn’t know if her PPP application would be approved by then. The big problem is her customer base has been forced to close and she estimates 20% are closed for good. The same goes for companies supplying restaurants, hair salons, coffee shops, really any personal service, etc.
The owner of a service business told me his normal service is down, but their backlog of project work will keep them busy for three to four months. He also applied for the PPP and I’m sure he’ll get it. Given it will cover costs, the revenue will fall straight to the bottom line so at least the government will get a percentage of it back in taxes. And I know of businesses applying for the PPP even though their sales will be strong.
I’m sure the government officials were in a quandary. How to get money out ASAP versus qualifying who will get it. They chose giving it to all business meeting the topline criteria, which was mainly size of company and keeping people working (or calling them back to work). There were no “need” qualifiers like how much have your sales declined? Or, what will your Q2 sales be compared to 2019? (Yes, I know there’s a question asking the applicant to state they’ve been affected by the virus.) Given the business owner has to hire back their people to get loan forgiveness, what will those people do if there are no customers?
Not an easy decision and I wonder if there will be qualifiers in the future phases of the relief programs. There should be.
“I am not the kind of person women fall in love with. I sort of grow on them, like a fungus. Jeff Bezos