Estimates and Misclassifying Will Hurt You

It’s March and that means college basketball tournaments aka, March Madness. It’s your typical tournament in that all the number one and two seeds won their first games and by the end of the second round a number one, two number twos, and a number three had been upset. Also, the “experts” proclaimed some teams had been seeded lower than they should have been and therefore got games too tough too early.

Recently I wrote a very well received post about how projections are mostly meaningless. The same applies here but we should give credit to those seeding these teams as 75% of the “Sweet Sixteen” are where they’re supposed to be. Of course, even the experts brackets were busted by these and other upsets.

Those teams upsetting the much higher seeds got hot at the right time and these factors the same in our day-to-day businesses. Think about how often a “for sure” client doesn’t become a client. Or how the longshot customer buys from you without (what you perceive to be) too much effort.

We all misclassify the likelihood of someone doing business with us (both ways) and every so often we get “hot” at the right time, say the right thing, etc. That’s life, and it’s part of what makes life and business interesting. Of course, if, like sports teams, we practice what we do (and practice correctly), we reduce the chances of upsets and increase the chances of getting hot.

“The man who says his wife can’t take a joke forgets that she took him.” Oscar Wilde

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